I'll post my full thoughts about the election soon. But before I do, there's something I'd like to point out that nobody has noticed.
The huge disparity between the ALP's vote in metropolitan sydney and elsewhere in NSW.
Specifically: the complete collapse of Labor's primary vote in Metropolitan Sydney. Not many seats were lost, but some of the results are truly stunning, and must be sending shockwaves through the ALP's NSW branch.
Yet when you look at the regional seats, Labor's primary vote held up, or even increased.
Macquarie
A good example of the contradiction is the seat of Macquarie, which takes in the Hawkesbury and the blue mountains. Most of it is very regional in the hawkesbury, but the blue mountains is more like outer metropolitan sydney these days - socially progressive with lots of commuters.
The liberal party's vote in this seat actually went nowhere - it stayed exactly the same. But Labor's primary vote fell 5%. Amazingly, none of it went to the liberals - they went to the greens and other candidates. The independent votes didn't come back to Labor, and the liberals won the seat on a narrow 2PP swing.
Labor's primary vote mostly held in the mountains or leaked to the greens, but they suffered in the hawkesbury. If Labor's primary vote had been 2% bigger, they would have narrowly held on. But all in all, the 2PP swing to the liberals was not very large here. Labor will be kicking themselves that they lost this one.
Rural/Regional NSW Seats - Labor actualy increased its 2PP vote in some key places
Perhaps the most baffling thing is how Labor managed to actually hold, or even increase its vote in regional NSW.
Against all the odds, and despite a tiny margin of just 0.1%, Labor somehow managed to get a 2PP swing in favour of it, to the tune of 1.5% in the central coast seat of Robertson. The Labor and the liberals vote both fell by 2% and the greens vote slightly increased. Everyone had written it off, and Labor had actually stopped a lot of campaigning there and transferred resources to Dobell. The liberals must be kicking themselves - they really should have won this seat. Instead, the decision of local branches to remove Belinda Neal's preselection saved the day. Well done Deb O'Neill.
Next door in Dobell, also marginal, Labor's Craig Thompson increased his primary vote by 0.1% on Primaries. The liberal vote fell by almost 2%.
Just above Dobell, in the safe liberal seat of Shortland, Labor's vote only fell 2%.
Further up the North Coast in Page, Janelle Saffin got a very healthy 4.1% primary vote swing in her favour, while the nationals vote went nowehere. Well done Janelle.
In the bellweather seat of Eden-Monaro in the south of NSW and near the ACT, Mike Kelly increased his primary vote by 0.3%, and picked up a swing of 1.5% on the 2PP, with help from a slightly higher greens vote.
In all these seats, Labor's vote actually increased on a 2PP basis.
But now look at Sydney
Outer suburbs
In Greenway, the seat Louise Markus held before a very bad redistribution for her, Labor lost 7.9% on Primaries. They were only saved when a mere 2.8% of it went to the liberals, giving Labor a very narrow win on 2PP.
In Lindsay, strong local campaigning from David Bradbury seems to have saved the day. Despite a 6.9% swing against him, he still beat the liberals on primaries. Tellingly, the greens only got 4.5% of the vote, and so he squeaked back with 50.2% of the 2PP. The liberals will be very annoyed they didn't win.
In Macarthur, Labor suffered a 6.9% swing on primaries. The libs got 2.4% of it, and that was enough to give them th seat. Interestingly, 2.9% of it went to One Nation, although they were number one on the ballot paper.
In Hughes, Labor's hopes of winning a tight seat from 2007 were derailed by a 5.8% primary swing against Labor - 3.1% went to the liberals. One nation again scored lucky with the number one ticket spot and picked up 1.6%.
In Werriwa, Labor's primary vote fell a whopping 8.9%. The locals may not have appreciated Laure Ferguson being parachuted in.
In all of these seats, the swing was around 5-7% against Labor on the primaries. It's a miracle they didn't lose more.
Bennelong
Next, lets have a look at the other seat Labor lost - Bennelong, right in the heart of Sydney's west.
Labor's primary vote fell by a whopping 8% - and almost all of it went straight to the liberals. John Alexander won 49% of the Primary vote and was easily elected.
And now, for the carnage in safe ALP Sydney seats
Although Bennelong was the only seat the ALP lost, check out the enormous collapses in Labor's primary vote in a number of Sydney Metro seats:
Banks: -10.3%
Barton: -8.9%
Blaxland: - 8.4%
Chifley: -12.0%
Fowler: -15.9%
Kingsford-Smith: -8.7% -
McMahon: -7.3%
Parramatta: -8.9%
Reid: -11.8%
Watson: -10.3%
In all of these cases, the swing went almost straight to the liberals, to the point where some of them were won by Labor by only 52.5% on the primary vote. Some of them could only now be called marginal.
Even in the inner city there was severe damage:
Grayndler: -8.7% - Albo was given an almighty fright when the Greens picked up 6%, finished ahead of the liberals, and only lost to the ALP 51.5-48.5.
Sydney: -5.4% - Tanya Plibersek did better than many colleagues - the greens got 3% of the swing but fell 4% short of getting into 2nd spot.
And even in Wollongong and the Hunter, Labor heartland, there was bad damage:
Throsby: -7.9%
Cunningham: -3.3% - although the liberal primary vote actually increased by 5.3%
Newcastle: -2.8% - the ALP lost it's primary vote win, but the libs and greens each picked up 5% off an independent from last time.
Hunter: - 5.2% - of which sadly, 3.3% went to One Nation. And no, they weren't first on the ballot.
So what does all this mean?
Clearly, brand Labor is well and truly down the toilet. Although the ALP hasn't lost many seats, it has lost a sizeable chunk of it's iron grip on metropolitan Sydney. If these results are repeated at the upcoming state election in March 2011, Labor will be utterly wiped out for a generation in NSW.
And I'll post my thoughts on why in a moment.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Current betting odds - federal election
The polls seem to be 52-48, with Labor doing poorly in Queensland.
Since the national polls seem to be a bit confusing, now might be worth having a look at the betting markets to see what they're saying about individual seats.
Currently, in marginal seats, the Liberals are tipped by the punters to gain:
Dawson (QLD)
Flynn (QLD)
Leichhardt (QLD)
Macquarie (NSW)
Robertson (NSW)
Swan (WA)
The Greens stand to Gain:
Melbourne (VIC)
And Labor stands to gain:
McEwen (VIC)
This result would leave Labor with 77 seats - a very slim majority (76 is needed to form government).
Into the mix we also need to throw in the following seats, which are dead even in the current betting markets:
Hughes (NSW) - currently held by libs
Macarthur (NSW) - currently held by libs
Hasluck (WA) - currently held by ALP
Solomon (NT) - currently held by ALP
If Labor was to lose all four of these seats, there would be a hung parliament, with Labor winning 75 seats. Labor would be the likely election winner with the 1 Greens MP from Melbourne probably supporting them. The coalition would win 71 seats and there would be 3 Independents.
Hughes and Macarthur are marginal seats that were on Labor's hitlist in 2007. Popular liberal incumbents prevented Labor from getting over the line despite some big swings, but they are retiring in 2010, giving Labor an opening.
Labor has been optimistic about Hughes since the start of the campaign and has been campaigning very hard. Dana Vale was a master at attracting pork-barrelling projects into the seat when she was an MP, but with the Howard government gone, she has decided to retire. Macarthur is in the same boat - the Liberal, Pat Farmer only held on to that seat with a tiny majority in 2007. The question with of those seats will be - can Labor win them against the broader trend of dissatisfaction in NSW? It won't be easy. The markets in Hughes are a dead heat, but the liberals are very slightly favoured in Macarthur.
Solomon is the seat that takes in Darwin and surrounds. Labor won the seat off the liberals in 2007, but some upcoming personal scandals will not help Labor's candidate a second time around. Currently it's all tied up on the markets.
Hasluck was the only seat Labor took off the liberals in WA in 2007, but the mining tax has made it a hard win the second time around in a state that Labor isn't favoured. The liberals have nominated a good candidate here. Currently all tied up as well.
Labor will be desperately hoping it can win one of these four seats, because it will make their job a hell of a lot easier. On current market predictions, if Labor won one of them, it would put them back into government.
Anomalies -
The markets are usually good predictors of seats, but they didn't get everything right in 2007. The big swings in queensland surprised a lot of people - some swings were up around the 15% mark.
There seems to be a disconnect between current polling and these betting results. Labor's polling is down in QLD, with some predicting a 4% swing - this would be enough to cost Labor nearly 10 seats, according to some News Ltd papers. This could be an exaggeration or it could not. Yet the markets are only predicting a loss of three.
Likewise, markets are showing safety for seats like Bennelong and Lindsay, despite Labor also being on the nose at a state level in western sydney. If Labor win those seats, plus Hughes and Macarthur, they could afford to lose Macquarie and Robertson with - amazingly - no net loss. Perhaps the key will be incumbency - Maxine McKew is running again in Bennelong and David Bradbury is recontesting Lindsay. Meanwhile, Belinda Neal was disendorsed in Robertson, while Bob Debus isn't recontesting a redistributed Macquarie.
The other disconnect is SA - despite Labor showing enormous poll leads, they aren't predicted to pick up either of the 2 remaining marginals there.
Somewhere, someone is getting it wrong.
Personally I think all eyes need to be on Queensland. Labor might shed the odd seat in NSW and WA, and they might gain the odd one in SA, NSW and VIC. I honestly think once those seats are settled, there'll be no more than -4 seats for Labor.
The real focus is Queensland. If Labor loses more than 3-4 seats there, they will be badly under the pump.
Since the national polls seem to be a bit confusing, now might be worth having a look at the betting markets to see what they're saying about individual seats.
Currently, in marginal seats, the Liberals are tipped by the punters to gain:
Dawson (QLD)
Flynn (QLD)
Leichhardt (QLD)
Macquarie (NSW)
Robertson (NSW)
Swan (WA)
The Greens stand to Gain:
Melbourne (VIC)
And Labor stands to gain:
McEwen (VIC)
This result would leave Labor with 77 seats - a very slim majority (76 is needed to form government).
Into the mix we also need to throw in the following seats, which are dead even in the current betting markets:
Hughes (NSW) - currently held by libs
Macarthur (NSW) - currently held by libs
Hasluck (WA) - currently held by ALP
Solomon (NT) - currently held by ALP
If Labor was to lose all four of these seats, there would be a hung parliament, with Labor winning 75 seats. Labor would be the likely election winner with the 1 Greens MP from Melbourne probably supporting them. The coalition would win 71 seats and there would be 3 Independents.
Hughes and Macarthur are marginal seats that were on Labor's hitlist in 2007. Popular liberal incumbents prevented Labor from getting over the line despite some big swings, but they are retiring in 2010, giving Labor an opening.
Labor has been optimistic about Hughes since the start of the campaign and has been campaigning very hard. Dana Vale was a master at attracting pork-barrelling projects into the seat when she was an MP, but with the Howard government gone, she has decided to retire. Macarthur is in the same boat - the Liberal, Pat Farmer only held on to that seat with a tiny majority in 2007. The question with of those seats will be - can Labor win them against the broader trend of dissatisfaction in NSW? It won't be easy. The markets in Hughes are a dead heat, but the liberals are very slightly favoured in Macarthur.
Solomon is the seat that takes in Darwin and surrounds. Labor won the seat off the liberals in 2007, but some upcoming personal scandals will not help Labor's candidate a second time around. Currently it's all tied up on the markets.
Hasluck was the only seat Labor took off the liberals in WA in 2007, but the mining tax has made it a hard win the second time around in a state that Labor isn't favoured. The liberals have nominated a good candidate here. Currently all tied up as well.
Labor will be desperately hoping it can win one of these four seats, because it will make their job a hell of a lot easier. On current market predictions, if Labor won one of them, it would put them back into government.
Anomalies -
The markets are usually good predictors of seats, but they didn't get everything right in 2007. The big swings in queensland surprised a lot of people - some swings were up around the 15% mark.
There seems to be a disconnect between current polling and these betting results. Labor's polling is down in QLD, with some predicting a 4% swing - this would be enough to cost Labor nearly 10 seats, according to some News Ltd papers. This could be an exaggeration or it could not. Yet the markets are only predicting a loss of three.
Likewise, markets are showing safety for seats like Bennelong and Lindsay, despite Labor also being on the nose at a state level in western sydney. If Labor win those seats, plus Hughes and Macarthur, they could afford to lose Macquarie and Robertson with - amazingly - no net loss. Perhaps the key will be incumbency - Maxine McKew is running again in Bennelong and David Bradbury is recontesting Lindsay. Meanwhile, Belinda Neal was disendorsed in Robertson, while Bob Debus isn't recontesting a redistributed Macquarie.
The other disconnect is SA - despite Labor showing enormous poll leads, they aren't predicted to pick up either of the 2 remaining marginals there.
Somewhere, someone is getting it wrong.
Personally I think all eyes need to be on Queensland. Labor might shed the odd seat in NSW and WA, and they might gain the odd one in SA, NSW and VIC. I honestly think once those seats are settled, there'll be no more than -4 seats for Labor.
The real focus is Queensland. If Labor loses more than 3-4 seats there, they will be badly under the pump.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
NSW Federal Senate ballot guide
I noticed that there are 83 candidates on the senate ballot paper in NSW this year. Yes - 83. So, for those who can be bothered to number below the line, here's your handy guide to the positions of those on the ballot paper in NSW.
Group A: Socialist Alliance
A broad electoral church of eight different socialist groups who formed under the one banner in 2001. They’ve become quite popular on university campuses and you can barely attend any left wing protest without them drowning out the crowd with signs. They describe themselves as “anti-capitalist” and for “a democratic society run by and for working people, not the greedy, destructive elite that now rules”.
http://www.socialist-alliance.org/
Group B – Independents: Robert Hodges and Bob Frier
Very little information can be found online about these guys or their policies. They both seem to be involved on the board of the Glenorie RSL club. Make of that what you will.
Group C – Independents: Tony Robinson, Noel Selby
Nick Selby is a truckie who ran as an Independent in the recent State Penrith By-election. He was accused by the liberals as being a Labor supporter, because he supported building a roundabout up the mountains somewhere. Whatever the merits or stupidity of that claim, it was denied by Mr Selby, who stated he has been a “swinging voter”. His Penrith campaign was centered around providing better public services to the area. Given Selby’s profile, it’s a bit baffling he is second in the group. Tony Robinson is also a truck driver and a Penrith local.
Noel Selby profile: http://penrith-press.whereilive.com.au/news/story/independent-noel-selby-steps-forward-for-penrith-by-election/
http://www.penrithstar.com.au/news/local/news/general/noel-selby-independent-nepean-river-and-penrith-valley-sports-stadium/1854196.aspx
Group D – Independents: Darrin Hodges and Nick Folkes:
These two have a campaign website, not that it’s all that pleasant to read. They seem to want to stop all immigration, bash “third world masses”, end the mining tax, and build up the manufacturing industry. They seem to hate socialism, multiculturalism, and globalization. Maybe they should have run for One Nation - oh wait, hang on, they oppose the internet filter.
http://www.darrinhodges.com/
Group E – Building Australia Party
This seems to be a building industry-based party that supports loosening planning and local council regulations to assist the building industry build more homes.
http://www.buildingaustralia.org.au/
Group F – Senator On-Line
A party that promises to raise any policy in the senate put to them by any voter around the country through online submissions. Their first candidate is Wes Bas, a Surry Hills police officer and community activist. Their second candidate is Brianna Roach, a law student from the north shore.
http://senatoronline.org.au/
Group G – Communist Alliance
The reds are out from under the bed. The Communist Alliance incorporates the old Communist Party of Australia (CPA) and a few other disparate communist groups. Geoff Lawler is a trade union official with the Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union in the Riverina area. Brenda-Anne Kellaway is a teacher and single mum. They are also running a candidate in the lower house seat of Sydney.
http://www.communist-alliance.org.au/
Group H – Independents Nadia Bloom and Bede Ireland
Nothing can be found anywhere about either of these candidates apart from the AEC website. They are apparently retirees.
Group I – Citizens Electoral Council of Australia
These guys are the Australian followers of the wacky conspiracy theorist and former US democratic party congressman, Lyndon LaRouche. If you’re someone who thinks that the US government brought down the twin towers in a controlled explosion, and that we should renationalize the banks so the Jews won’t get hold of them, this party could be for you.
http://www.cecaust.com.au/
Group J - Australian Democrats
They’re barely alive, but still around. Originally a breakaway progressive liberal party, the democrats now claim that they are “returning to their roots”. Apparently this involves a rejection of the Mining Tax for reasons of “states rights”. Ah, ever the small-L liberals.
http://www.democrats.org.au/
Group K - Independents – Meg Sampson, J Hinchcliffe
They at least have a twitter account. They both describe themselves as old – 65 and 75. Meg Sampson says she was an ex-member of the Australian democrats, and there seems to be a record of a Megan Sampson as a previous candidate for the dems in the 1980’s and 1990’s. They even have a twitter account!
http://msmegansampson.blogspot.com/
http://twitter.com/meg4sensampson
Group L – Independents – Leon Adrian Belgrave, Janos Beregszaszi
Leon Adrian Belgrave appears to have previously run as a candidate for the “Outdoor Recreation Party”, who are a libertarian group now allied to the Liberal Democratic Party. I’m not sure whether these guys are running as ODP candidates or just on their own.
http://www.orp.org.au/
Group M – The Climate Skeptics
This is a party devoted to advancing the cause of Climate Change skepticism – the first such party in the world (so they claim). If you’ve ever uttered the phrase “but it’s all just natural cycles”, or “the science isn’t settled”, maybe these guys are up your alley. .
http://www.landshape.org/news/
Group N – Secular Party of Australia
These guys are a party of humanists and atheists who are committed to advancing policies that strengthen the separation of church and state and advance the cause of reason and strict secularism. They also want to attack the influence of religion in politics. Amongst their policies is a commitment to end state money to religious schools. I’m guessing that approximately 70% of voters will hate them, while the rest stand up and cheer.
http://www.secular.org.au/
Group O – Shooters and Fishers Party
They catch things, then shoot them. Combining guns and fish may sound like a weird concept, but they actually do quite well in the NSW state upper house, where they currently hold the balance of power. These guys are a largely rural-based party that aims to protect the rights of fisherman and gun owners. They describe themselves as strong “family values” social conservative types, which is probably the reason why they are distinct from the more libertarian Outdoor Recreation Party/LDP.
http://www.shootersandfishers.org.au/
Group P – Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
Originally formed out of the labor party split in the 1950’s before dying in the mid 1970’s, the DLP have had something of a minor resurgence in recent years, particularly in Victoria where they have state upper house representation. On economic issues they would be mostly centrist with a pro-union slant, and on social issues they are very conservative (against same-sex marriage, stem cells, abortion, etc).
http://www.dlp.org.au/
Group Q - Australian Sex Party
A new party that has attracted attention for it’s name alone. The Australian Sex party rails against censorship and “wowserism”. It supports an R rating for videogames and the abolition of the internet censorship filter. They actually have some detailed policy proposals on sex education, health, preventing sex slavery, immigration, protecting the rights of sex workers, and legal-no fault abortion. And even a bit of religion bashing thrown in for good measure.
http://www.sexparty.org.au/
Group R – Independents – David Barker and S G Zureik
David Barker was the bible-bashing liberal candidate for Chifley, who was disendorsed. Why? Because he posted anti-Muslim messages on his Facebook page and tried to claim that labor wanted to take a Christian Australia in a muslim direction. Not the smartest idea, especially when your main opponent, Ed Husic, is a “non practicing muslim”. He was also a former member of Fred Nile’s Christian Democrats.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/anti-muslim-liberal-candidate-david-barker-to-be-dumped-says-joe-hockey/story-e6frf7jx-1225896596514
Group S – Socialist Equality Party
These guys are the official followers of Leon Trotsky and the Fourth International. Yes, real live trots.
http://www.sep.org.au/website/
Group T – Sustainable Population Party
These guys are listed as Independents on the ballot because they didn’t get their ballot in on time. The Sustainable Population Party want to limit Australia’s population growth to a maximum of 26 million by 2050. They stress they aren’t racist and the reasons are purely environmental, and they want to maintain out current refugee intake of 13,000 a year. Their website proudly boasts the endorsement of Dick Smith. An immigration party endorsed by Dick Smith – you’d think they’d be popular enough to get their name on the ballot. Maybe their missing ingredient was blatant racism.
http://www.populationparty.com/Home/About-Us
Group U – Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)
This group wants to change Australia’s Family Law and Child Support policies so that there is more room for equal custodianship of children when in divorce. They also have other policy proposals.
http://www.ncpp.xisle.info/
Group V – Family First
A conservative Christian political party backed by Pentacostal Churches like Hillsong. They are one of the fastest growing minor parties in Australia, although they are likely to be left with no federal senate representation now that Steve Fielding’s senate term has expired.
http://www.familyfirst.org.au/
Group W – Australian Labor Party
Australia’s oldest political party, started by the Union movement, Labor is a social democratic party committed to collective bargaining, a multilateral approach to foreign policy, utilizing the role of government to provide services, and progressive social policy. They have been in government since 2007.
http://www.alp.org.au/
Group X – Reconcile Australia Party
Listed as Independents on the ballot, this is a party that advocates policies around Aboriginal reconciliation and living standards.
http://www.reconcileaustraliaparty.org/
Group Y – The Carers Alliance
This party runs on a platform of advancing the rights and living standards of the disabled and their carers. Amongst their proposals is a National Disability Insurance Scheme.
http://www.carers.org.au/
Group Z – Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)
Why vote for family first when you could vote for The Original Bible Bashers™? Formed out of Fred Nile’s Call to Australia party, this party “Promotes Christian values in Parliament and evaluates all legislation on Biblical principles.” This is code for bashing gays, arguing against abortion, and promoting ultra-conservative Christian values.
http://www.cdp.org.au/
Group AA – Liberal Party of Australia/National Party of Australia
The Liberal Party are Australia’s major Liberal Conservative party. Formed by Robert Menzies in 1944, they promote policies that support free enterprise, individual liberty, and conservative values. The National Party of Australia (formerly the Country Party) are a rural-based conservative party that advocates policies that benefit rural and regional Australia. The Liberal and National Parties govern in coalition, and have been in opposition since 2007. They are running a joint ticket in NSW, with the first two candidates being liberals and the third candidate a national.
http://www.liberal.org.au/
http://www.nationals.org.au/
Group AB – The Republican Democrats
Listed as independents on the ballot, this party is a centrist/progressive liberal party along similar lines as the British Liberal Democrats. I guess you could call them “small L Liberals”, but with a firm progressive streak. In QLD they are running a noted anti-corruption campaigner for the Senate. Their two NSW candidates are local activists from the central coast. They do have an impressively long list of detailed policies and a professional looking website. They’re obviously trying to start something.
http://republicandemocrats.org.au/
Group AC – One Nation
Australia’s favourite hillbilly party. Founded by Pauline Hanson in 1997, One Nation is the main Australian political party advocating for racism, nationalism, xenophobia, lower immigration and aboriginal-bashing.
http://www.onenation.com.au/
Group AD – The Greens
Australia’s largest Third party by some distance, the Greens are a party that was founded primarily to advocate policies related to environmentalism. Now they are the vanguard for left-wing politics, with a long list of policy proposals for all areas of policy. To the left of Labor, the greens seek to make big inroads in an election where both major parties have abandoned action on climate change. They stand a real chance of holding the balance of power in the senate and winning their first lower house seat.
http://www.greens.org.au/
Group AE – Independents – Cheryl Kernot, Simon Cant
Cheryl Kernot is a former leader of the Australia democrats, who defected to the Labor Party in 1998 and was briefly the member for Dixon until 2001, until she lost to Peter Dutton. She is running on a platform of “change politics”, whatever we expect that to mean. Simon Cant is a former independent councillor on Manly Council.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/kernot-sets-her-sights-on-senate-seat-20100730-10zwv.html
Group AF – Liberal Democratic Party
A libertarian party, advocating for free-market economic policies, small government and social policies based on individual liberty. Although they are economically right wing, they also oppose internet censorship and advocate for policies like same-sex marriage and gun law deregulation.
http://www.ldp.org.au/
Ungrouped:
Hamish Richardson – Very little can be found about him, apart from the fact that he’s a Journalist.
Norman H Joseph Hooper – Described as a Pensioner and Economics Researcher.
Stewart Scott-Irving
Ran as an Independent in the 2008 Lyne By-election (for Mark Vaile’s old seat, won by Independent Rob Oakshott. After the election he tried to get the by-election result disputed because he claimed the ABC had not provided him with equal time as a candidate, despite only receiving 4% of the vote. perhaps a bit loopy, he is an education consultant.
http://www.wauchopegazette.com.au/news/local/news/general/scottirving-will-contest-election/259773.aspx
Bryan Pape
Bryan Pape is a law lecturer at the University of Armidale and a former member of the National Party. His main claim to fame was a constitutional challenge he brought against the $900 payments in the Rudd government’s economic stimulus package in 2008. It got a good run in the Murdoch press.
http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/bonus-payment-finally-ready-to-roll/story-e6frfmd9-1225699613528
Andrew Whelan – There are many Andrew Whelans around, including a lecturer in politics and policy at University of Armidale. However, this Andrew Whelan is a Software Engineer. Amazingly, I can’t find a website for him.
Group A: Socialist Alliance
A broad electoral church of eight different socialist groups who formed under the one banner in 2001. They’ve become quite popular on university campuses and you can barely attend any left wing protest without them drowning out the crowd with signs. They describe themselves as “anti-capitalist” and for “a democratic society run by and for working people, not the greedy, destructive elite that now rules”.
http://www.socialist-alliance.org/
Group B – Independents: Robert Hodges and Bob Frier
Very little information can be found online about these guys or their policies. They both seem to be involved on the board of the Glenorie RSL club. Make of that what you will.
Group C – Independents: Tony Robinson, Noel Selby
Nick Selby is a truckie who ran as an Independent in the recent State Penrith By-election. He was accused by the liberals as being a Labor supporter, because he supported building a roundabout up the mountains somewhere. Whatever the merits or stupidity of that claim, it was denied by Mr Selby, who stated he has been a “swinging voter”. His Penrith campaign was centered around providing better public services to the area. Given Selby’s profile, it’s a bit baffling he is second in the group. Tony Robinson is also a truck driver and a Penrith local.
Noel Selby profile: http://penrith-press.whereilive.com.au/news/story/independent-noel-selby-steps-forward-for-penrith-by-election/
http://www.penrithstar.com.au/news/local/news/general/noel-selby-independent-nepean-river-and-penrith-valley-sports-stadium/1854196.aspx
Group D – Independents: Darrin Hodges and Nick Folkes:
These two have a campaign website, not that it’s all that pleasant to read. They seem to want to stop all immigration, bash “third world masses”, end the mining tax, and build up the manufacturing industry. They seem to hate socialism, multiculturalism, and globalization. Maybe they should have run for One Nation - oh wait, hang on, they oppose the internet filter.
http://www.darrinhodges.com/
Group E – Building Australia Party
This seems to be a building industry-based party that supports loosening planning and local council regulations to assist the building industry build more homes.
http://www.buildingaustralia.org.au/
Group F – Senator On-Line
A party that promises to raise any policy in the senate put to them by any voter around the country through online submissions. Their first candidate is Wes Bas, a Surry Hills police officer and community activist. Their second candidate is Brianna Roach, a law student from the north shore.
http://senatoronline.org.au/
Group G – Communist Alliance
The reds are out from under the bed. The Communist Alliance incorporates the old Communist Party of Australia (CPA) and a few other disparate communist groups. Geoff Lawler is a trade union official with the Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union in the Riverina area. Brenda-Anne Kellaway is a teacher and single mum. They are also running a candidate in the lower house seat of Sydney.
http://www.communist-alliance.org.au/
Group H – Independents Nadia Bloom and Bede Ireland
Nothing can be found anywhere about either of these candidates apart from the AEC website. They are apparently retirees.
Group I – Citizens Electoral Council of Australia
These guys are the Australian followers of the wacky conspiracy theorist and former US democratic party congressman, Lyndon LaRouche. If you’re someone who thinks that the US government brought down the twin towers in a controlled explosion, and that we should renationalize the banks so the Jews won’t get hold of them, this party could be for you.
http://www.cecaust.com.au/
Group J - Australian Democrats
They’re barely alive, but still around. Originally a breakaway progressive liberal party, the democrats now claim that they are “returning to their roots”. Apparently this involves a rejection of the Mining Tax for reasons of “states rights”. Ah, ever the small-L liberals.
http://www.democrats.org.au/
Group K - Independents – Meg Sampson, J Hinchcliffe
They at least have a twitter account. They both describe themselves as old – 65 and 75. Meg Sampson says she was an ex-member of the Australian democrats, and there seems to be a record of a Megan Sampson as a previous candidate for the dems in the 1980’s and 1990’s. They even have a twitter account!
http://msmegansampson.blogspot.com/
http://twitter.com/meg4sensampson
Group L – Independents – Leon Adrian Belgrave, Janos Beregszaszi
Leon Adrian Belgrave appears to have previously run as a candidate for the “Outdoor Recreation Party”, who are a libertarian group now allied to the Liberal Democratic Party. I’m not sure whether these guys are running as ODP candidates or just on their own.
http://www.orp.org.au/
Group M – The Climate Skeptics
This is a party devoted to advancing the cause of Climate Change skepticism – the first such party in the world (so they claim). If you’ve ever uttered the phrase “but it’s all just natural cycles”, or “the science isn’t settled”, maybe these guys are up your alley. .
http://www.landshape.org/news/
Group N – Secular Party of Australia
These guys are a party of humanists and atheists who are committed to advancing policies that strengthen the separation of church and state and advance the cause of reason and strict secularism. They also want to attack the influence of religion in politics. Amongst their policies is a commitment to end state money to religious schools. I’m guessing that approximately 70% of voters will hate them, while the rest stand up and cheer.
http://www.secular.org.au/
Group O – Shooters and Fishers Party
They catch things, then shoot them. Combining guns and fish may sound like a weird concept, but they actually do quite well in the NSW state upper house, where they currently hold the balance of power. These guys are a largely rural-based party that aims to protect the rights of fisherman and gun owners. They describe themselves as strong “family values” social conservative types, which is probably the reason why they are distinct from the more libertarian Outdoor Recreation Party/LDP.
http://www.shootersandfishers.org.au/
Group P – Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
Originally formed out of the labor party split in the 1950’s before dying in the mid 1970’s, the DLP have had something of a minor resurgence in recent years, particularly in Victoria where they have state upper house representation. On economic issues they would be mostly centrist with a pro-union slant, and on social issues they are very conservative (against same-sex marriage, stem cells, abortion, etc).
http://www.dlp.org.au/
Group Q - Australian Sex Party
A new party that has attracted attention for it’s name alone. The Australian Sex party rails against censorship and “wowserism”. It supports an R rating for videogames and the abolition of the internet censorship filter. They actually have some detailed policy proposals on sex education, health, preventing sex slavery, immigration, protecting the rights of sex workers, and legal-no fault abortion. And even a bit of religion bashing thrown in for good measure.
http://www.sexparty.org.au/
Group R – Independents – David Barker and S G Zureik
David Barker was the bible-bashing liberal candidate for Chifley, who was disendorsed. Why? Because he posted anti-Muslim messages on his Facebook page and tried to claim that labor wanted to take a Christian Australia in a muslim direction. Not the smartest idea, especially when your main opponent, Ed Husic, is a “non practicing muslim”. He was also a former member of Fred Nile’s Christian Democrats.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/anti-muslim-liberal-candidate-david-barker-to-be-dumped-says-joe-hockey/story-e6frf7jx-1225896596514
Group S – Socialist Equality Party
These guys are the official followers of Leon Trotsky and the Fourth International. Yes, real live trots.
http://www.sep.org.au/website/
Group T – Sustainable Population Party
These guys are listed as Independents on the ballot because they didn’t get their ballot in on time. The Sustainable Population Party want to limit Australia’s population growth to a maximum of 26 million by 2050. They stress they aren’t racist and the reasons are purely environmental, and they want to maintain out current refugee intake of 13,000 a year. Their website proudly boasts the endorsement of Dick Smith. An immigration party endorsed by Dick Smith – you’d think they’d be popular enough to get their name on the ballot. Maybe their missing ingredient was blatant racism.
http://www.populationparty.com/Home/About-Us
Group U – Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting)
This group wants to change Australia’s Family Law and Child Support policies so that there is more room for equal custodianship of children when in divorce. They also have other policy proposals.
http://www.ncpp.xisle.info/
Group V – Family First
A conservative Christian political party backed by Pentacostal Churches like Hillsong. They are one of the fastest growing minor parties in Australia, although they are likely to be left with no federal senate representation now that Steve Fielding’s senate term has expired.
http://www.familyfirst.org.au/
Group W – Australian Labor Party
Australia’s oldest political party, started by the Union movement, Labor is a social democratic party committed to collective bargaining, a multilateral approach to foreign policy, utilizing the role of government to provide services, and progressive social policy. They have been in government since 2007.
http://www.alp.org.au/
Group X – Reconcile Australia Party
Listed as Independents on the ballot, this is a party that advocates policies around Aboriginal reconciliation and living standards.
http://www.reconcileaustraliaparty.org/
Group Y – The Carers Alliance
This party runs on a platform of advancing the rights and living standards of the disabled and their carers. Amongst their proposals is a National Disability Insurance Scheme.
http://www.carers.org.au/
Group Z – Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)
Why vote for family first when you could vote for The Original Bible Bashers™? Formed out of Fred Nile’s Call to Australia party, this party “Promotes Christian values in Parliament and evaluates all legislation on Biblical principles.” This is code for bashing gays, arguing against abortion, and promoting ultra-conservative Christian values.
http://www.cdp.org.au/
Group AA – Liberal Party of Australia/National Party of Australia
The Liberal Party are Australia’s major Liberal Conservative party. Formed by Robert Menzies in 1944, they promote policies that support free enterprise, individual liberty, and conservative values. The National Party of Australia (formerly the Country Party) are a rural-based conservative party that advocates policies that benefit rural and regional Australia. The Liberal and National Parties govern in coalition, and have been in opposition since 2007. They are running a joint ticket in NSW, with the first two candidates being liberals and the third candidate a national.
http://www.liberal.org.au/
http://www.nationals.org.au/
Group AB – The Republican Democrats
Listed as independents on the ballot, this party is a centrist/progressive liberal party along similar lines as the British Liberal Democrats. I guess you could call them “small L Liberals”, but with a firm progressive streak. In QLD they are running a noted anti-corruption campaigner for the Senate. Their two NSW candidates are local activists from the central coast. They do have an impressively long list of detailed policies and a professional looking website. They’re obviously trying to start something.
http://republicandemocrats.org.au/
Group AC – One Nation
Australia’s favourite hillbilly party. Founded by Pauline Hanson in 1997, One Nation is the main Australian political party advocating for racism, nationalism, xenophobia, lower immigration and aboriginal-bashing.
http://www.onenation.com.au/
Group AD – The Greens
Australia’s largest Third party by some distance, the Greens are a party that was founded primarily to advocate policies related to environmentalism. Now they are the vanguard for left-wing politics, with a long list of policy proposals for all areas of policy. To the left of Labor, the greens seek to make big inroads in an election where both major parties have abandoned action on climate change. They stand a real chance of holding the balance of power in the senate and winning their first lower house seat.
http://www.greens.org.au/
Group AE – Independents – Cheryl Kernot, Simon Cant
Cheryl Kernot is a former leader of the Australia democrats, who defected to the Labor Party in 1998 and was briefly the member for Dixon until 2001, until she lost to Peter Dutton. She is running on a platform of “change politics”, whatever we expect that to mean. Simon Cant is a former independent councillor on Manly Council.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/kernot-sets-her-sights-on-senate-seat-20100730-10zwv.html
Group AF – Liberal Democratic Party
A libertarian party, advocating for free-market economic policies, small government and social policies based on individual liberty. Although they are economically right wing, they also oppose internet censorship and advocate for policies like same-sex marriage and gun law deregulation.
http://www.ldp.org.au/
Ungrouped:
Hamish Richardson – Very little can be found about him, apart from the fact that he’s a Journalist.
Norman H Joseph Hooper – Described as a Pensioner and Economics Researcher.
Stewart Scott-Irving
Ran as an Independent in the 2008 Lyne By-election (for Mark Vaile’s old seat, won by Independent Rob Oakshott. After the election he tried to get the by-election result disputed because he claimed the ABC had not provided him with equal time as a candidate, despite only receiving 4% of the vote. perhaps a bit loopy, he is an education consultant.
http://www.wauchopegazette.com.au/news/local/news/general/scottirving-will-contest-election/259773.aspx
Bryan Pape
Bryan Pape is a law lecturer at the University of Armidale and a former member of the National Party. His main claim to fame was a constitutional challenge he brought against the $900 payments in the Rudd government’s economic stimulus package in 2008. It got a good run in the Murdoch press.
http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/bonus-payment-finally-ready-to-roll/story-e6frfmd9-1225699613528
Andrew Whelan – There are many Andrew Whelans around, including a lecturer in politics and policy at University of Armidale. However, this Andrew Whelan is a Software Engineer. Amazingly, I can’t find a website for him.
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